The 2010 Six Nations Betting Preview: Specials Markets
By www.BetRepublic.com

How many points will be scored across the 2010 tournament, who is our pick for top tryscorer and will the Grand Slam be won? BetRepublic has the answers...

The northern hemisphere struck back in the autumn, finally ending the 2008 hoodoo which saw only Wales triumph against any of the Tri-Nations powers. Victories by France, Ireland and Scotland over South Africa or Australia showed that the Six Nations tournament is once again a quality competition, and one that has continually enthralled European rugby fans.

The 2010 Six Nations could well be the closest tournament since Italy joined the northern hemisphere jamboree in 2000. Since the Azzurri joined the old Five Nations, the Italians have steadily got better and better and at the Six Nations launch last week, every coach was adamant that this could be the tightest tournament there has ever been. And what makes this extremely likely, is that rugby has become more a war of attrition than ever before. The game is currently being decided by the smallest of margins – there have been a huge amount of draws in the Guinness Premiership this season. The reason for this is that teams approach matches with a fear of losing, rather than dreams of winning. This can be seen in the tactics employed by most sides this season, which has involved leathering the ball down field and playing constantly for field position. Last year the Six Nations returned 597 points, the second-lowest points total after 2008, which returned 595. It is no surprise therefore that the spread firm Sporting Index have priced up total tournament points at 590-600 this season. Teams like Scotland, who beat Australia 9-8 and lost to Argentina 9-6 during the autumn, have learnt to dig in dourly against the very best sides. In fact, if you look at the autumn internationals as a block of fixtures, they averaged comfortably the lowest total points make-up since 2000. Although there is not a lot of margin for error, total points at 590 look high.

But where the value may lie, however is in the winning margins market. This tournament is not as open as it used to be. In 2002, the winning margins market made up at a whopping 343, but over the last four years the make-ups have been: 213, 193, 232, 182. As you can see, if this trend continues, which given the evidence it is likely to, then Sporting’s winning margins market could result in a dramatically lower total than the 215-225 spread they offer on their website. The market works by predicting the aggregate winning margins of each of the 15 matches in the tournament. With a tight campaign expected, the suggestion is to aim low and sell at 215.

Ireland were the most resilient of the six teams during the autumn, beating world champions South Africa in a brutal showdown at Croke Park. They put in a Herculean performance to draw level with Australia after trailing at half-time, and with that sort of experience and determination, it is going to be very hard to stop them defending last year’s Grand Slam. France also showed that on their best form, they are a serious player, having accounted for New Zealand in Dunedin in the summer, and also beating South Africa in Toulouse. But France were flayed alive against New Zealand on their final start in November, and it has to be worrying for Les Blues fans that they were so easily dismantled by the world’s No. 1 side. With Martin Johnson welcoming back so many of his frontline players after such a torrid time in the latter stages of 2009, you couldn’t rule out England taking a few scalps. The likes of Delon Armitage, Nick Easter and Riki Flutey especially have a considerable impact to Johnson’s line-up. Flutey runs some superb lines in attack and is a wall in defence. But teams such as Wales, Scotland, Italy and France all have defensive frailties in the centre channel, and with Flutey having a decent appearance-to-try ratio at international and club level in the last 18 months, he looks a massive wager at 40-1 to be top tournament tryscorer with Ladbrokes, as well as 12-1 with Stan James to top England’s tryscoring charts.

Wales having the same fixture list as when they won the Grand Slam in 2008, and with Scotland accounting for Australia in the autumn, it seems this season anything is possible. This year it really does seem too close to call, so with the No Grand Slam looking attractive at 4-6 that really looks the easiest and safest option on the outright.

BetRepublic Betting Recommendations (1-5pt staking plan):

2pt sell Tournament winning margins at 215 (Sporting Index)
1pt sell Total tournament points at 590 (Sporting Index)
1pt each-way Riki Flutey top tournament tryscorer at 40-1 (Ladbrokes)
1pt each-way Riki Flutey top England tryscorer at 12-1 (Ladbrokes)
3pts No Grand Slam at 4-6 (Betclic, Bodog, Skybet)


Six Nations Tournament 2010 Schedule

Saturday, 06 February 2010
England v Wales, 17:00
Ireland v Italy, 14:30

Sunday, 07 February 2010
Scotland v France, 15:00

Saturday, 13 February 2010
France v Ireland, 16:30
Wales v Scotland, 14:00

Sunday, 14 February 2010
Italy v England, 14:30

Friday, 26 February 2010
Wales v France, 20:00

Saturday, 27 February 2010
England v Ireland, 16:00
Italy v Scotland, 13:30

Saturday, 13 March 2010
Ireland v Wales, 14:30
Scotland v England, 17:00

Sunday, 14 March 2010
France v Italy, 14:30

Saturday, 20 March 2010
France v England, 19:45
Ireland v Scotland, 17:00
Wales v Italy, 14:30

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